The most recent Housing Delivery Test (HDT) results are from 2023 and were published in December 2024. These results compare the number of homes delivered to the minimum required between 2020 and 2023. Recognising the delay, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) has proposed expediting future publications. One option is to combine the data collections for 2024 and 2025.
On 20 November 2025, new data was released on the number of net additional dwellings and bedspaces in residential institutions completed up to 2025. Pegasus Group has used this information to estimate the likely HDT results for 2024 and 2025. However, due to local government reorganisation and policy changes in December 2024, it was not possible to estimate the 2025 results for some new authorities. These include Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council, Cumberland Council, Westmorland and Furness Council, North Yorkshire Council, and Somerset Council. Furthermore, previous results from several authorities do not match publicly available information, making accurate estimation difficult in these cases. With these exceptions, the published 2023 HDT results and the estimated outcomes for 2024 and 2025 are presented in the following maps.
2023
2024
2025
The analysis suggests that more authorities will be subject to the presumption in favour of sustainable development. The number will rise from 59 in 2023 to 80 in 2024, then to 92 in 2025. The number of authorities subject to a 20% buffer is also likely to grow, increasing from 87 in 2023 to 97 in 2024, and reaching 126 by 2025. In contrast, authorities without any consequence will likely fall from 191 in 2023 to 143 in 2024, and further to 112 in 2025.
The estimated results may come as a shock to several authorities. These include Blaby, Brent, Cambridge, City of London, Cotswold, Crawley, Derbyshire Dales, Haringey, Herefordshire, Lancaster, North Hertfordshire, Solihull, Swale, Test Valley, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wolverhampton, Plymouth, South Hams, and West Devon. By 2025, all of these authorities are likely to have the presumption in favour of sustainable development engaged. This is a significant change, as their current HDT results have no consequence.