The most recent Housing Delivery Test (HDT) results are those of 2023 which were published in December 2024. These compare the number of homes delivered within the minimum number of homes required over the period 2020-23. At this time, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) recognised that the results had been delayed and proposed to expedite the publication of future results, including by possibly combing the data collections for the 2024 and 2025 results.
On 20 November 2025, new information was published on the number of net additional dwellings and bedspaces in residential institutions that were completed up until 2025. From this, Pegasus Group has estimated the likely 2024 and 2025 HDT results. It should be noted that owing to local government re-organisation and the changes to national policy in December 2024, it has not been possible to estimate the 2025 results for some new authorities including Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council, Cumberland Council, Westmorland and Furness Council, North Yorkshire Council and Somerset Council. Additionally, the previous results in a number of authorities do not align with publicly available information, and so we have not been able to accurately estimate the likely results in these. With these exceptions, the published 2023 HDT results, and the estimated results for 2024 and 2025 are presented in the following maps.
2023
2024
2025
The analysis suggests that the number of authorities likely to be subject to the presumption in favour of sustainable development will continue to increase from 59 authorities in 2023 to 80 by 2024 and to 92 by 2025. Similarly, it suggests that the number of authorities likely to be subject to a 20% buffer is likely to increase from 87 in 2023 to 97 in 2024 and to 126 by 2025. Conversely, the number of authorities without any consequence is likely to reduce from 191 in 2023 to 143 in 2024 and to 112 in 2025.
The estimated results are likely to come as a shock in a number of authorities, including in Blaby, Brent, Cambridge, City of London, Cotswold, Crawley, Derbyshire Dales, Haringey, Herefordshire, Lancaster, North Hertfordshire, Solihull, Swale, Test Valley, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wolverhampton, and Plymouth, South Hams and West Devon. All of which are likely to have the presumption in favour of sustainable development engaged by 2025 when the current HDT results have no consequence.
For more information, please contact our Planning experts; Neil Tiley and Matthew Good.