The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published updated 2021-based national population projections in January 2024. The data breaks down into five-year age groups, which allows analysis of projected changes across Great Britain. This note examines the age groups 0-14, 15-64, and 65+ to explore future demographic changes. It also considers what the data means, especially for the housing needs of older people.

Projected population change in Great Britain 2023-2043

Projections for Great Britain between 2023 and 2043 show a clear trend: the population is ageing. Those aged 65+ will grow much faster than other age groups.
Great Britain’s total population will increase by about 11% (7.3 million more people) from 2023 to 2043. Children aged 0-14 will see the smallest increase, growing by just 0.2% (24,000 more people). People aged 15-64 will increase by 7.7% (3.3 million more people).
People aged 65 and over will increase by 31.8% (4 million). Of the 7.3 million overall population increase, over half (55%) will be people over 65. This shift will affect housing, the health sector, and labour markets. Figure 1 shows the population change by age group.

Figure 1: Projected Population Change by Age Group, Great Britain, 2023-2043 (2023=100).

Source: ONS.
Within the 65+ group, those aged 85+ will see the fastest growth. Between 2023 and 2043, this group will grow by 67.5% (1.1 million more people). The largest absolute increase will be in the 75-84 age group (1.8 million more people). Table 1 shows more details for people aged 65 and older.

Table 1: Change by age group 65+ in GB, 2023-2043

2021-based local authority projections will not appear until 2025. However, projections based on 2018 data show that nearly all local authorities will have more people aged 65 or over between 2023 and 2043. Across 260 local authorities in England, the number will rise by at least 25%. Tower Hamlets will see the largest percentage increase (105.2% more people aged 65+), while Cornwall will see the largest absolute increase (57,445 more people). Figure 2 lists the ten local authorities with the largest absolute increases.

Figure 2: Local Authorities with the largest absolute increases in people aged 65+, 2023-2043

Source: ONS.

Implications for housing need

An ageing population in Great Britain will create new housing needs, especially for older people. The Elderly Accommodation Council (EAC) defines specialist accommodation for older people as follows:
  • Retirement/sheltered housing: A group of self-contained flats or bungalows reserved for people over the age of 55 or 60; some shared facilities and on-site supportive management.
  • Enhanced sheltered housing: Sheltered housing with additional services to enable older people to retain their independence in their own home for as long as possible. There may be 24/7 staffing cover, at least one daily meal will be provided, and there may be additional shared facilities.
  • Age-exclusive housing: Housing designed, built and let/sold exclusively to older people (typically 50+ or 55+), but without the supportive on-site management characteristic of sheltered housing. Usually also without any shared facilities except perhaps a garden.
  • Extra care housing: Schemes where a service registered to provide personal or nursing care is available on site 24/7. Typically, at least one daily meal will be provided, and there will be additional shared facilities.
Guidance from the Housing Learning and Improvement Network¹ shows how to estimate current and future need for specialist accommodation for older people. The guidance recommends 245 bedspaces per 1,000 people aged 75 or over, so housing need can be estimated directly.
In 2023, projections show just under 2.7 million people aged 75+ in Great Britain. This creates a current need for about 657,000 specialist bedspaces for older people. By 2043, the need will rise to 993,475 bedspaces—an increase of 336,385 over twenty years.

Summary

In summary, population projections show that Great Britain is ageing, and this trend will accelerate over the next 20 years. As the number of older people rises, especially those over 75, demand for specialist accommodation will increase sharply. Pegasus Group can assess the need for older persons’ housing in specific areas and has completed such assessments for several local authorities, including Buckinghamshire, Milton Keynes, Swindon, Hertsmere, and Mole Valley.

For more information contact Richard Cook, Neil Tiley, Niamh Ruane and Cameron Davis.