The Subnational Household Projections 2016

Group News

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released its 2016-household projections, which provide estimates on household change up to 2041. The data supersedes the 2014-based projections, which were released in 2016. It is important to note that they are not forecasts and provide an indication of the number of additional households that would form if recent demographic trends continue. Over the next 25 years, the number of households in England is projected to increase by 4.0 million, rising from 22.9 million in 2016 to 26.9 million in 2041. This equates to 159,000 additional households, which is lower than was previously projected. The 2014-based projections indicated that there would be around 210,000 additional households per year over the 25-year period from 2014-39.

The household projections form a key part of the government’s standard method for assessing housing need. The government has already said it will be consulting on possible changes to the standard method to account for the lower growth rates. The consultation is expected to start imminently and with the standard method focusing on housing need over a 10-year period, Pegasus Group has looked at household growth over the period 2018-28 for both the 2014-based and 2016-based projections, to see how each region is impacted. The main findings from this analysis are summarised below:

  • Between 2018 and 2028, household numbers across all regions in England are projected to increase by 1.65 million according to the 2016-based projections (165,000 new households per annum). This is a reduction of 527,000 when compared with growth for the same time frame in the 2014-based projections, which estimated around 218,000 additional households per annum.
  • While household growth is projected to slow according to the new projections, London and the South East are still expected to see the highest increase in household numbers – just under 350,000 in London and 304,000 in the South East.
  • The North East is expected to see to lowest absolute growth in household numbers in the new projections – just under 40,000.
  • It should be noted that not all councils are projected to see lower growth by the new data. For example, Wiltshire and North West Leicestershire see an increase in household numbers based on the new projections, which in turn is likely to impact on future dwelling requirements.

Table 1 and Figure 2 show the analysis in further detail.

Table 1: Projected household growth by region. 2018-28

Change in household numbers, 2018-28 Difference
2014-based projections 2016-based projections
East 269,000 222,000 -47,000
East Midlands 166,000 145,000 -21,000
London 570,000 348,000 -222,000
North East 60,000 39,000 -21,000
North West 187,000 141,000 -46,000
South East 380,000 304,000 -76,000
South West 210,000 188,000 -22,000
West Midlands 187,000 153,000 -34,000
Yorkshire and The Humber 148,000 110,000 -38,000
England 2,177,000 1,650,000 -527,000

 

Figure 2: Comparison of household projections at a regional level for 2018-28
Household projections comparison
Source: 2014-based Household Projections (MHCGL) and 2016-based household projections (ONS)

“Whilst the 2016 Based Subnational Household Projections identify a slower rate of household growth than previous data, which will have direct implications for determining dwelling requirements (circa 220,000 homes per annum across England using the standard methodology), the Government has confirmed that it is committed to delivering 300,000 homes per annum and has outlined that the standard methodology for determining dwelling requirements could well be amended to achieve the aspirational target. It is understood that such amendments are currently being considered by Ministers and are due to be published late Autumn 2018.” Managing Director, Tony Bateman

Pegasus Group will produce a more detailed analysis of the projections over the next week which will be available to download on our website.