Implications of Brexit for the Housing Market

Sector: Residential

Briefing paper, Group News

Pegasus Group’s Cirencester office present a briefing note on the ‘Implications of Brexit for the Housing Market’.

While the details of the Brexit deal have yet to be formulated, it is useful to consider the potential implications of any such deal on the demand for housing within the UK.

Summary Points Include:

  • Net international migration has been repeatedly underestimated by national projections.
  • The latest national projections assume significant decreases in net international migration and therefore already include an allowance for the effects of Brexit.
  • Therefore the number of homes being planned should not be reduced as a result of Brexit.
  • The projections assume that net migration from the EU will decline by 72% and therefore there will be no uplift to migration from elsewhere to address the resultant labour shortage.
  • This would have significant adverse implications on the economy of the UK as there would not be a significant workforce to provide economic growth.
  • It would also compromise the ability for certain services, particularly healthcare, to meet the needs of the population as this sector has a large migrant workforce.
  • The projections also assume that household sizes will not be affected by a reduction in migration, despite the fact that migrant households are much larger.
  • This means that the household sizes that are being assumed are not reflective of a post-Brexit Britain (assuming that migration rates are reduced), and that household sizes will actually be much smaller, requiring a much greater number of homes to provide for the same population.

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