The population is getting older. There were over 10.5 million people aged 65+ in England in 2021, an increase of 2.6 million since 2001. The trend of ageing population is expected to continue and according to ONS 2018-based subnational population projections, the number of people aged 65+ in England will increase by 4.2 million between 2018 and 2038. This will have significant impact on many areas of life, including healthcare provision and the type of housing needed in areas.
On the issue of housing provision for older people, in May 2023 the Department for Levelling Up, Communities and Local Government and the Department of Health and Social Care established the year-long Older People’s Housing Taskforce. The Taskforce has been set up to further understand the market in England for older people’s housing today and make recommendations for shaping it in the future.
In November 2022 the findings of the Mayhew Review were published. The Review looked at the retirement housing sector in the UK, designed to feed into the Older People’s Housing Task Force once it was set up. The Review had a specific remit to analyse trends in the supply and demand of retirement housing and to look at existing living arrangements across the wider housing market and specialist retirement communities. The Review found that there is a significant shortage of retirement accommodation with access to care and the increasing under-occupation of existing housing stock is restricting the supply of family homes, pushing up housing prices.
When considering the housing offer for older people in England, it is important to look at the changes in the number of people aged 65+ at a local authority level to understand the level of need across the country. Pegasus Group have analysed past and future population trends in every local authority. This note provides a summary of the findings and considers the implications for the older persons’ accommodation sector.
Past Population Change (2001-2021)
Between 2001 and 2021, the population of England increased by over 7 million people. This was an annual population increase of 0.7%. A large proportion of this increase was attributable to the increase in people aged 65+, with this age group growing by 1.5% per annum, an absolute increase of 2.6 million between 2001 and 2021. This increased the proportion of the population aged 65+ in England from 15.8% in 2001 to 18.5% in 2021.
Absolute increase in the number of people aged 65+, 2011-2021
Between 2001 and 2021, the three local authorities with the largest absolute increase in the number of people aged 65+ were Cornwall, Wiltshire, and Dorset:
- Cornwall: 44,500 additional people aged 65+.
- Wiltshire: 41,100 additional people aged 65+.
- Dorset: 34,800 additional people aged 65+.
The map below presents the change in the number of people aged 65+ by local authority for the period 2001-2021. Clicking on each local authority presents the annual and absolute changes in those aged 0-15, 16-64 and 65+ and also the changes in total population.
Future Population Change (2018-2038)
The ONS 2018-based subnational population projections indicate that between 2018 and 2038, the population of England will increase by almost 4.8 million people. This is an annual growth rate of 0.4%. The majority of this increase is projected to be from people aged 65+, with this age cohort projected to increase by 1.7% per annum, an absolute increase of 4.2 million over the 20 year period. The proportion of the population aged 65+ in England is projected to be 23.6% in 2038.
Absolute increase in the number of people aged 65+, 2018-2038
Similar to past population change, between 2018 and 2038 Cornwall, Wiltshire and Dorset are projected to have the highest absolute increase in the number of people aged over 65:
- Cornwall is projected to have the highest absolute increase in the number of people aged 65+ between 2018 and 2038 when compared to all local authorities in England. This age cohort is projected to increase by 65,724.
- The number of people aged over 65 in Wiltshire is projected to increase by 51,314 between 2018 and 2038.
- Dorset is projected to have the third highest absolute increase in people aged 65+ between 2018 and 2038 when compared to all local authorities in England. This age group is projected to increase by 45,291 over the 20-year timeframe.
Annual percentage increase of people aged 65+, 2018-2038.
Between 2018 and 2038, Tower Hamlets, Newham, and Southwark are projected to have the highest percentage annual change in the number of people aged 65+:
- Tower Hamlets is projected to have the highest annual growth in the number of people aged 65+ between 2018 and 2038. This age group is projected to increase by 4% per annum.
- In Newham, the number of people aged 65+ is projected to increase by 3.3% per annum between 2018 and 2038.
- Southwark is projected to have the third highest annual growth in the number of people aged 65+, with the age group projected to rise by 3.3% per annum between 2018 and 2038.
The map below presents the change in the number of people aged 65+ by local authority for the period 2018-2038. Clicking on each local authority on the maps also presents the annual and absolute changes in those aged 0-15, 16-64 and 65+ and also the changes in total population.
Summary
Housing supply is already major issue for local authorities and an ageing population means the provision of accommodation to meet the needs of older people will be become even more important over the next 20 years. To put the pace of change into perspective:
- Between 2001 and 2021, there were 40 local authorities in England that had their entire population growth attributable to people aged 65+, with the number of people aged 0-15 and 16-64 in these areas declining.
- Between 2018 and 2038, there are 122 local authorities projected to have their entire population growth attributable to people aged 65+.
An ageing population presents the opportunity to develop more schemes that will deliver accommodation such as age-restricted, sheltered and extra-care dwellings. As noted by the Mayhew Review, this type of housing can help older people stay healthier for longer, especially when combined with access to care. It can reduce the strain on the NHS, delay transfer into care homes and free up housing for younger people.
At Pegasus Group, we can carry out assessments which look at the need for different types of specialist housing in an area, including the need for market and affordable provision. Over the last 18 months we have undertaken need assessments for more than 20 schemes across the country. Further information on our capability in this field is available by downloading the document below.
