Welcome to our latest quarterly economic update prepared by our economics specialists at Pegasus Group. This quarter we look at The Housing White Paper (February 2017) and the implications of the new data on the indicative assessments of housing needs.
The not so standard methodology…
The Housing White Paper (February 2017) held promise of a simpler way of calculating the future dwelling requirements of an administrative area. The consultation document ‘Planning for the right homes in the right places’ (September 2017) introduced a method that uses two key data sources (latest household projections and affordability ratios), complete with a table setting out what the appropriate indicative assessment of housing need is based upon the proposed formula.
Since this proposed new method and accompanying table was published, the 2017 workplace affordability ratio data (annual publication) was released and, in September 2018, the 2016 based household projections (biennially publication) will be available.
Going forward, Pegasus Group has sought to recalculate the indicative assessment. In doing so, however, a number of questions have been raised:
– will the standard table be reissued by Government on an annual basis/ as and when data is replaced?
– when does the base date change (as the guidance specifies the indicative assessment of need is to be calculated over a 10 year basis)?
In response to this, correspondence from CLG outlined that the standard table will not be reissued and nor will the Government provide guidance on when the base date will change. Whilst the standard methodology, on the face of it, provides a quick way of identifying the level of indicative housing need, disappointingly, however, key parameters required to complete the calculation are missing, that will undoubtedly lead to ambiguity, discussion and additional time spent during public inquiries and examinations.
Should you want to know the implications of the new data on the indicative assessment of housing need for a particular LPA, please contact the Economics team at Pegasus Group.
Please find our analysis in full by downloading the PDF.