Introduction

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published updated 2021-based national population projections in January 2024. The data is broken down by five-year age groups, making it possible to analyse the projected change in various age groups across Great Britain. This note looks at the age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ to examine the future demographic changes which could take place. It then goes on to explore the implications of the data, particularly when it comes to housing requirements for older people.

Projected population change in Great Britain 2023-2043

Looking at projected population change for Great Britain between 2023 and 2043 shows that the trend of an ageing population is set to continue, with significantly higher growth in those aged 65+ relative to other ages.

The total population of Great Britain is set to increase by around 11% (7.3 million additional people) from 2023-2043. Those aged 0-14 will see the smallest increase with projected growth of just 0.2% (24,000 additional people). The number of those aged 15-64 is projected to increase by 7.7% (3.3 million additional people).

Meanwhile, the number of those aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 31.8% (4 million). This means that of the overall population increase of 7.3 million, over half (55%) of these additional people will be over 65+. This will have serious implications for housing, the health sector and labour markets. Figure 1 shows the data on population change by age group.

Figure 1: Projected Population Change by Age Group Great Britain, 2023-2043 (2023=100).

Source: ONS.

Looking in more detail at the population aged 65+, there is a larger projected increase in those aged 85+. Between 2023 and 2043 this age group is projected to grow by 67.5% (1.1 million additional people). The largest absolute increase will be seen in those aged 75-84 (1.8 million additional people). Table 1 shows further detail on projected change for age groups over 65.

Table 1: Change by age group 65+ in GB, 2023-2043

2021-based local authority projections will not be published until 2025. However, 2018-based projections show that nearly all local authorities will see an increase in the number of people aged over 65 between 2023 and 2043. There will be an increase of 25% or more for 260 local authorities in England across this timeframe. The largest percentage increase will be seen in Tower Hamlets where the number of people aged over 65 is projected to increase by 105.2%. The largest absolute increase will be seen in Cornwall (57,445 additional people). The ten local authorities which can expect the largest absolute increases are shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Local Authorities with largest absolute increases in people aged 65+, 2023-2043

Source: ONS.

Implications for housing need

The ageing population across Great Britain has significant implications for housing requirements, more specifically older persons’ housing. The Elderly Accommodation Counsel (EAC) defines specialist accommodation for older people as follows:

  • Retirement/sheltered housing: A group of selfcontained flats or bungalows reserved for people over the age of 55 or 60; some shared facilities and on-site supportive management.
  • Enhanced sheltered housing: Sheltered housing with additional services to enable older people to retain their independence in their own home for as long as possible. There may be 24/7 staffing cover, at least one daily meal will be provided and there may be additional shared facilities.
  • Age exclusive housing: Housing designed, built and let/sold exclusively to older people (typically 50+ or 55+), but without the supportive on-site management characteristic of sheltered housing. Usually also without any shared facilities except perhaps a garden.
  • Extra care housing: Schemes where a service registered to provide personal or nursing care is available on site 24/7. Typically, at least one daily meal will be provided and there will be additional shared facilities.

It is possible to quantify the current and future need for specialist older persons’ accommodation using guidance produced by the Housing Learning and Improving Network¹. The guidance indicates that older persons’ accommodation provision in an area should equate to 245 bedspaces per 1,000 people over the age of 75.

For 2023 the projections set out a figure of just under 2.7 million people aged 75+ within Great Britain. Based on this figure it is estimated that current need equates to around 657,000 bedspaces. By 2043 the need is estimated to increase to 993,475 bedspaces. This increase represents an additional 336,385 bedspaces over the twenty-year period.

Summary

In summary, the population projections data highlight that there is an ageing population across Great Britain and this trend is set to become even more significant over the next 20 years. With the increase in the number of older people, especially those aged over 75, there will be a significant rise in the quantity of specialist older persons’ accommodation required over the next two decades. At Pegasus Group, we can carry out assessments which look at the need in specific areas. We have carried out need assessments for specialist housing for older people in a number of local authorities, including Buckinghamshire, Milton Keynes, Swindon, Hertsmere, and Mole Valley.

For more information contact Richard Cook, Neil Tiley, Niamh Ruane and Cameron Davis.