2018-based national population projections

Briefing paper

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released its 2018-based national population projections, which provide a long-term view of future growth prospects in the UK.

The 2018-based projections show that over the ten-year period from 2018-28, the UK’s population is projected to increase from 66.4million to 69.4million. This translates to 3million additional people, or annual growth of 0.4%. The 2016-based projections indicated that the UK population could grow by around 3.4million between 2018 and 2028 (0.5% per annum), meaning the 2018-based projections are predicting a slower rate of growth.

Table 1 shows the expected population change in the UK for the 2018-based projections from 2018-28, broken down by age group. It is evident that the majority of growth will be accounted for by increases in the number of people aged 60 and over.

Table 1: Projected Change in UK Population, 2018-28

Source: ONS, 2018-based Population Projections

The ONS is due to release 2018-based sub-national population projections in March 2020. This includes projections at a regional and local authority level and Pegasus Group will provide analysis on the figures when they become available.

This article was written by Director, Richard Cook from our Manchester office. To find out more about Pegasus Group services, please contact us.