The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its 2016-household projections on 20 September 2018, which provide estimates on household change up to 2041. The data supersedes the 2014-based projections, which were released in 2016. It is important to note that they are not forecasts and provide an indication of the number of additional households that would form if recent demographic trends continue.
Over the next 25 years, the number of households in England is projected to increase by 4.0 million, rising from 22.9 million in 2016 to 26.9 million in 2041. This equates to 159,000 additional households, which is lower than was previously projected. The 2014-based projections indicated that there would be around 210,000 additional households per year over the 25-year period from 2014-39.
The household projections form a key part of the Government’s standard method for assessing housing need. When it was first published in September, the standard method calculated an annual housing figure of 266,000. Initial analysis by Pegasus Group suggests that this reduces significantly by just over 50,000 when the new projections are factored into the calculation. The government has already said it will be consulting on possible changes to the standard method to account for the lower growth rates, with an announcement expected imminently.
Given the standard method focusing on housing need over a 10-year period, Pegasus Group has looked at household growth over the period 2018-28 for both the 2014-based and 2016-based projections, to see how each region is impacted. Not all areas are projected to see lower growth by the new data. For example, Wiltshire and North West Leicestershire see an increase in household numbers based on the new projections.
Please click to download our full detailed document which looks at the regions.